Week 6, 2026 season
Win probabilities from the model. Every pick below was logged with a timestamp before kickoff. Original picks are preserved in the append-only record; publication is a separate explicit step.
The original 15 Week 5 picks from version 0.1.0 remain unchanged. A later quarterback feature repair applies to future predictions; see the methodology and rebuilt audit.
| Kickoff | Game | Pick | Win prob | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Seattle (SEA) at Denver (DEN) | Seattle | 50% | coin flip |
| Sun Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | Houston (HOU) at Jacksonville (JAX) | Jacksonville | 61% | lean |
| Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Baltimore (BAL) at Cleveland (CLE) | Baltimore | 71% | confident |
| Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Carolina (CAR) at Philadelphia (PHI) | Carolina | 65% | lean |
| Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Chicago (CHI) at Atlanta (ATL) | Atlanta | 70% | confident |
| Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | New Orleans (NO) at New York (NYG) | New York (NYG) | 57% | lean |
| Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | New York (NYJ) at New England (NE) | New England | 76% | strong |
| Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh (PIT) at Tampa Bay (TB) | Tampa Bay | 58% | lean |
| Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Tennessee (TEN) at Indianapolis (IND) | Indianapolis | 74% | confident |
| Sun Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | Arizona (ARI) at Los Angeles (LA) | Los Angeles (LA) | 81% | strong |
| Sun Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | Buffalo (BUF) at Las Vegas (LV) | Buffalo | 66% | confident |
| Sun Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | Los Angeles (LAC) at Kansas City (KC) | Kansas City | 79% | strong |
| Sun Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | Dallas (DAL) at Green Bay (GB) | Green Bay | 59% | lean |
| Mon Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | Washington (WAS) at San Francisco (SF) | San Francisco | 81% | strong |
Confidence labels: strong is 75% or higher, confident is 65 to 75%, lean is 55 to 65%, coin flip is under 55%. A coin flip still gets a side because the record demands it.
Running record:
model 10-4-1
· always home 5-9
· spread favorite 9-5
· moneyline favorite 9-5
details