Gridiron Model

Running record vs. the baselines

Model results cover every issued pick with a final score. Each baseline covers only games with valid closing odds; missing odds are shown separately. Baselines are graded on the closing line from the nflverse schedules file. Brier score is the average squared error of the published probability; lower is better, 0.25 is a coin flip.

All graded picks (15 games)

Who	W	L	Push	Missing	Win %	Brier
Gridiron model	10	4	1	0	71.4%	0.2186
Always home	5	9	1	0	35.7%
Closing-spread favorite	9	5	1	0	64.3%	0.2275
Moneyline favorite	9	5	1	0	64.3%	0.2267

2026 season

Who	W	L	Push	Missing	Win %	Brier
Gridiron model	10	4	1	0	71.4%	0.2186
Always home	5	9	1	0	35.7%
Closing-spread favorite	9	5	1	0	64.3%	0.2275
Moneyline favorite	9	5	1	0	64.3%	0.2267

Week by week

Season	Week	Model	Home	Spread fav	ML fav
2026	5	10-4	5-9	9-5	9-5

Recent graded picks

Week	Game	Pick	Prob	Result
2026 wk 5	TB 24 at DAL 16	Dallas	64%	miss
2026 wk 5	PHI 17 at JAX 19	Jacksonville	80%	hit
2026 wk 5	CHI 7 at GB 31	Green Bay	52%	hit
2026 wk 5	CIN 31 at MIA 24	Cincinnati	68%	hit
2026 wk 5	CLE 12 at NYJ 17	New York (NYJ)	51%	hit
2026 wk 5	HOU 26 at TEN 3	Houston	64%	hit
2026 wk 5	IND 22 at PIT 34	Pittsburgh	50%	hit
2026 wk 5	LV 17 at NE 45	New England	63%	hit
2026 wk 5	MIN 23 at NO 13	Minnesota	57%	hit
2026 wk 5	NYG 27 at WAS 27	Washington	65%	push
2026 wk 5	DEN 23 at LAC 17	Los Angeles (LAC)	52%	miss
2026 wk 5	DET 45 at ARI 21	Detroit	64%	hit
2026 wk 5	SF 32 at SEA 29	San Francisco	62%	hit
2026 wk 5	BAL 30 at ATL 23	Atlanta	60%	miss
2026 wk 5	BUF 37 at LA 34	Los Angeles (LA)	65%	miss

The full pick log, with pre-kickoff timestamps, is picks.csv. The record as data is record.json.